Presidential Election Of 1856 Essays - Bleeding Kansas,

Presidential Election of 1856 Title: The Contenders For the presidential election of 1856, the Democrats nominated James Buchanan and John Breckenridge, the newly formed Republican party nominated John Fremont and William Drayton, the American [or Know-Nothing] party nominated former president Millard Fillmore and Andrew Donelson, and the Abolition Party nominated Gerrit Smith and Samuel McFarland. Buchanan started his political career as a state representative in Pennsylvania, was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1821, appointed minister to Russia in 1832, and elected US Senator in 1834. He was appointed Secretary of State in 1845 by President Polk and in that capacity helped forge the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the Mexican War. He was appointed by President Polk as minister to Great Britain in 1853. As such, he, along with the American ministers to Spain and France, issued the Ostend Manifesto, which recommended the annexation of Cuba to the United States. This endeared him to southerners, who assumed Cuba would be a slave state. He was one of several northerners supported over the years by southern Democrats for being amenable to slaveholders' interests, a situation originating with Martin van Buren. Buchanan's two major rivals for the nomination, Franklin Pierce and Stephen Douglas, were both politically tainted by the bloodshed in Kansas. Buchanan was untainted, since he had been abroad during most of the controversy. Even so, he did not secure the nomination until the seventeenth ballot. Fremont was best known as an explorer and a war hero. He surveyed the land between the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, explored the Oregon Trail territories and crossed the Sierra Madres into the Sacramento Valley. As a captain in the Army, he returned to California and helped the settlers overthrow Mexican rule in what became known as the Bear Flag Revolution, a sidebar to the Mexican War. He was elected as one of California's first two Senators. The infant Republican party was born from the ashes of the Whig party, which had suffered spontaneous combustion as a result of the slavery issue. The party's convention was a farce; only northern states and a few border slave states sent delegates. Sticking to their Whig roots, they nominated a war hero, albeit a minor one. William Drayton's runner-up for the VP slot was Abraham Lincoln. Fillmore, having been the thirteenth president following the death of Zachary Taylor, found himself representing the American party after many northern delegates left the convention over a rift caused by the slavery issue. Their objection was that the party platform was not strong enough against the spread of slavery. The party's vice presidential nominee was a nephew of Andrew Jackson and the editor of the Washington Union. The party, also known as the Know-Nothings, was extremely antagonistic towards immigrants, Catholics and other assorted minorities. The party was born in 1850, when several covert "Native American" societies joined together, their secret password being "I know nothing." Smith was nominated by the Abolition party in New York, which had nominated Frederick Douglass for New York secretary of state the year before under the label New York Liberty Party. The Campaign: Neither Buchanan nor Fremont campaigned themselves. Republicans declared Buchanan dead of lockjaw. Fremont, however, had a splendid campaign substitute, his beautiful wife Jessie, prompting "Oh Jessie!" campaign buttons. The Democrats tried desperately to avoid the slavery issue altogether, opting instead to pursue the conservative effort to preserve the Union. The Republicans, on the other hand, actively attacked slavery. Their campaign slogan was "Free Soil, Free Men, Freedom, Fremont". [Shields-West, pgs 78 & 80] The self-serving efforts of Stephen Douglas did more to mold the campaign of 1856 than did any other single event. Although he did not intentionally destroy the North-South balance created by the Compromise of 1850, his focused quest for the White House caused him to make some foolish choices. Douglas coveted a rail head in Chicago for the new transcontinental railroad. This would make Chicago a major trade center for the country, not unlike New York City when the Erie Canal was completed. He knew increased economic power for his home state would translate as increased political power for him. The South, on the other hand, wanted the rail

Multidatabase Query Processing, Introduction to Transaction Management, Distributed Concurrency Control, Distributed DBMS Reliability Essay Example

Multidatabase Query Processing, Introduction to Transaction Management, Distributed Concurrency Control, Distributed DBMS Reliability Essay Example Multidatabase Query Processing, Introduction to Transaction Management, Distributed Concurrency Control, Distributed DBMS Reliability Essay Multidatabase Query Processing, Introduction to Transaction Management, Distributed Concurrency Control, Distributed DBMS Reliability Essay Essay Topic: Gun Control Introduction to Transaction Management Name: Course: Lecturer: Date: Introduction to Transaction Management A transaction is a sequence of operations of the database that are organized in a basic unit where databases are kept reliable and consistent. A database is said to be consistent when it has the following features; it has referential integrity, it maintains entity integrity and if it remains within the constraints set by the domain values. Moreover, a database should remain consistent before the execution of a transaction and after. During the execution of a transaction, a database should be in an inconsistent state where no other transaction should be exposed to it. Regardless of the number of transactions accessing the database, it should always remain in a consistent state[1]. The reliability of a database is determined by its capability to recover and its resiliency. A transaction is a sequence of operations involving the commands of reading and writing on a database. For instance an SQL statement is regarded as a transaction, a program that is enclosed by the commands ‘Begin-transaction’ and ‘end’ is also a transaction. A transaction can be terminated by commands of committing it or rolling it back. If a transaction is committed, it has been successfully completed and if it is rolled back, it has been aborted. The commit command makes the effect of the operations of the database permanent and the results can be viewed by all other transactions. The rollback command on the other hand has the effect of undoing the operations and restoring the database to the state it was before the transaction was executed[2]. Transactions can fail to complete for three reasons. They could be aborted by the management system, either if the system crashes or if the transaction aborts itself. When this occurs, the effects of the transaction should be undone. This helps the user to forget about the undone transaction as it has already been taken care of. However, if a transaction is completed it should be durable and its effects should last. The database management system log ensures the undoing of incomplete transactions where necessary. A database must ensure that four very important qualities of a transaction are fulfilled. These are atomicity, consistency, isolation and durability. All transactions should be atomic, meaning that they are supposed to either happen or not. All transactions should run by themselves and should be consistent. By default, the database management system assumes that the transactions are consistent. Transactions should be isolated from the effects of other transactions that are executable concurrently. The effects of the transaction should be consistent once the user is notified of their success even in the event of the crashing of the system. A user is usually responsible for the consistency of their transaction. If a database is in a consistent state when the transaction is beginning, the database should remain in the same state after the transaction is over. The management system for the database does the work of enforcing the commands and other constraints that the transactions should operate on. Every transaction sees the database as consistent. The user issues commands that prompt transactions and assume that each transaction shall be executed by itself; however, the management system of the database arranges the actions to be performed concurrently. The total effect shows the user that the many transactions that they have tasked the system to perform have been executed one after the other[3]. Since transactions are seen as series of read and write commands by the management system, a list of actions is developed. The management system also specifies if the transaction is to be committed or aborted. A schedule is created by the management system for transactions. The schedule is a list of actions, whether read, commit, write or abort that are attributed to a set of transactions. The order in which they happen in the schedule is similar to how they occur in the transaction. The schedule is also seen as an execution sequence of a set of transactions. The schedule describes actions as they are seen by the management system. Transactions are of different types and can be classified according to different classifications. By applications, transactions can be regular or distributed transactions. The transactions can also be compensating or heterogeneous. A compensating transaction has the purpose of undoing the effects of previous transactions. A heterogeneous transaction on the other hand has the runs in a heterogeneous database. By duration, transactions can be classified as short-life or on-line transactions or as Batch or long-life transactions. By structure, there are nested transactions and traditional flat structured transactions[4]. There are other types of transactions, for instance, a sub-transaction is a transaction that must begin after its parent transaction and end before its parent transaction. This means that the commit or abort command of this kind of transaction depends on its parent. The sub-transactions that exist within one parent are executable in parallel. The sub transactions have a special feature of recovering from failures independently without affecting the rest of the database and other transactions. Bibliography Chorafas, Dimitris. Transaction management: managing complex transactions and sharing distributed databases. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 1998. Gray, Jim and Andreas Reuter. Transaction processing: concepts and techniques. New York, NY: Morgan Kaufmann, 1993. Ozsu, Tamer, and Patrick Valduriez. Principles of Distributed Database Systems. New York, NY: Springer, 2011. Saake, Gunter and Kerstin Schwarz. Transactions and database dynamics. New York, NY: Springer, 2000. [1] Dimitris Chorafas, Transaction management: managing complex transactions and sharing distributed databases (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 1998), 98.

Should all states require motorcyclists and passengers to wear helmets Assignment

Should all states require motorcyclists and passengers to wear helmets - Assignment Example More important is the cost which a society has to bear when a biker meets an accident (American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, 2010). Head injuries are a severe outcome of riding bike without a helmet. Some people have stay in hospitals for a long duration with increased rehabilitation cost. Insurance companies do not afford all the cost and it is the public that ultimately pays for head and other injuries. Society should assess the claim of violation on freedom versus funding. After these analyses, it is important to wear helmet whenever people of any age are driving a motorcycle of riding a bike for their own health and safety. Federal government should take interest to keenly monitor the rising accidents and implement helmet laws where it does not exist (American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons). The major problem in America is variations in helmet laws in different states. For example, 20 states in US and district Columbia have very elaborate helmet laws for all riders and pass engers. There are further 27 states where the helmet law is imposed on some categories of the riders. Different age groups come under this law and some are out of it. Three states do not have any helmet law for people. There is a dire need for legislatures to take responsibility and introduce helmet law in the states where it is urgently required ("Helmet laws state," 2003) According to analysis there are about 80 million bike users in US. Bicycles are being used for fun, sports, health and transportation in different states. Popularity of bicycles has increased their usage and ultimately death rate and head injuries have also risen. According to data approximately 716 bike riders died on the roads in different states and about 91% out of... The paper represents the solution and advantages of a massive problem with motorcycle deaths in the United States, which has several important consequences; it costs lives, which tears apart families and is obviously tragic, it puts a drain on already strained medical institutions, and it costs tax payers, private citizens and health insurance companies massive amounts of money each year. Though, like any problem, there is no solution that will entirely solve this issue: motorcycling, and driving generally, is inherently dangerous and nothing can be done that will prevent that. But there are methods of risk mitigation, and harm reduction, that, if used consistently by motorcyclists and their passengers will help prevent deaths and injuries. So there are two parts to this solution: what actions need to be taken by motorcyclists, and what can be done to encourage them to take those actions? As mentioned in Part I, it is clear that helmet usage can go a significant way in reducing injur ies. It might also be important for motorcyclists to wear other protective gear, such as spine supports, Kevlar gloves and so on – the exact level of protection that should be warn is hard to pin down: more, however, is obviously always better. The aspect of how to get people to behave differently, two methods used in conjunction might work best: laws requiring motorcyclists to wear helmets, and public awareness to encourage them to follow these laws for their own safety.

Is American Culture a Harmless Invasion Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Is American Culture a Harmless Invasion - Essay Example The author of the paper states that American troops may have been fighting against a country without an army for five years in Iraq to bring the culture of democracy to it, but the real victory has been the corporate invasion that has even managed to witness a company that has long used the advertising slogan related to how many hamburgers it has sold establish a footing in India, a country where the natural resource that provides beef is considered sacred. American culture is not a harmless invasion because it is even more successful actual battlegrounds attempting to enforce democracy upon foreign nations that are perhaps not quite ready to make that leap. Every town in American already looks like alike with its Wal-Marts, Burger Kings, Home Depots and Rave Motion Picture Theaters standing proudly as beacons of homogeneity in part because they displace the specific cultural touchstones of home-owned business. American culture is constructed upon a solid foundation of destroying the specific generational individualities of towns, cities, and regions. Monoculture is the real description of American culture because it is based upon a bland sameness in which every street in a town resembles every street in any other town.  Globalizing America’s monoculture threatens to do the same, and is there really anyone who wants to travel to London or Paris or Tokyo or Sydney and not be able to distinguish between those towns and Peoria or Las Cruces or Pittsburgh?  Ã‚  

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan Natural disasters are an increasingly phenomena that we all evidently observe and identify that may have a direct bang on the interests of an area where it hits and also on explicit domestic meters in such areas. Depending of where we live, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc, are intimidation to living, belongings, industrious assets, and also can have an impact on societal pointers. The increasing occurrence of natural disasters is extremely interrelated to the increasing susceptibility of homes and communities in emergent nations, as earlier socioeconomic vulnerabilities may aggravate the shock of a natural disaster, making harder the course of revitalization (Vatsa and Krimgold, 2000). Therefore, the impact of such events could consequence in an instant raise in poverty and deficiency (Carter et al, 2007). The literature has been still conflicting to a few amounts. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have discussed that the long-standing shock on development of natural disasters is depressing, at the same time as Skidmore and Toya (2002) explain that such tragedy may upbeat impact development in the long run as there is a decrease to returns on physical assets but a boost in human capital, leading to advanced development. Strobl (2008) for the US coastal areas discover that tornados reduce countys development originally by 0.8 per cent, whereas getting your str ength back after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a critical cyclone is a diminution of 0.8 percent of development (Strobl, 2008a). The impact of a natural disaster may also origin discriminations. The poor, who undergo from profits rise and fall, and also have imperfect access to monetary services, in the consequences of a disaster may be extra flat to lessen use and have a declining upset in other domestic indicators as a result. Additionally, there are a many non poor, or close to be, who are not insured in opposition to such threats, and then may plunge into scarcity as result of recapitalizing when dealing with with the upset, depending the shock and probability of diminishing into scarcity of the original stock assets and coping means. Furthermore, susceptibility to natural disasters is a multifaceted issue, as it is strong-minded by the financial structure, the phase of growth, prevailing of communal and fiscal conditions, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and concentration of catastrophes, etc. The impact on deprived ones could be losing contact with a few vital services, reversals in accretion of corporeal and human funds, and possibly an augment in child employment and unlawful behavior. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the pretentious agents in natural disasters. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can be acquainted with the need for peripheral support and which may be more efficient; second, definite sections of affected can be acknowledged, e.g. how low income families are affected; and third, it may be also practical for setting up assistance for natural disasters and the latent results. Overall, growing literature has emerged over the last few years on the macroeconomic and development impacts of natural disasters. Amusingly, there is as up till now no harmony on whether disasters are significant from a macroeconomic point of view, and two situations can be identified. The first believes natural disasters a hinder for economic development and is well symbolized by the following reference: It has been argued that although individuals are risk-averse, governments should take a risk-neutral stance. The reality of developing countries suggests otherwise. Government decisions should be based on the opportunity costs to society of the resources invested in the project and on the loss of economic assets, functions and products. In view of the responsibility vested in the public sector for the administration of scarce resources, and considering issues such as fiscal debt, trade balances, income distribution, and a wide range of other economic and social, and political concerns, governments should not act risk neutral (OAS, 1991). The other position sees disasters as entailing little growth implications and consider disasters and their reduction a problem of, but not for development (e.g. Albala-Bertrand, 1993, 2006; Caselli and Malhotra, 2004). These authors find natural disasters do not negatively affect GDP and if anything, GDP growth is improved (Albala-Bertrand, 1993: 207). This paper can be understood as an attempt at reconciling this body of literature. There are two entry points for the analysis. The first is to look at counterfactual vs. observed GDP, the second entry point is to assess disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets (human, produced, intangible), and, importantly vulnerability. Overall, the evidence reveals adverse macroeconomic consequences of disasters on GDP. In a medium-term analysis, natural disasters on average seem to lead to negative effects on GDP. The negative effects may be small, yet they can become more pronounced depending on the size of the shock. We tested a large number of vulnerability predictors and found that higher aid rates as well as higher remittances lessen the adverse macroeconomic consequences, while capital stock loss is the most important predictor for the negative consequences. In July-August 2010, Pakistan experienced the worst floods in its history The floods have affected 84 districts out of a total 121 districts in Pakistan, and more than 20 million people one-tenth of Pakistans population More than 1,700 men, women and children have lost their lives, and at least 1.8 million homes have been damaged or destroyed (UN 2010, p.1). In attacking poverty in developing countries, due considerations need to be paid to the vulnerability of households against natural disasters. Poor households are likely to suffer not only from low income and consumption on average but also from fluctuations of their welfare once such disasters occur. These households are vulnerable to a decline in their welfare level because they have limited ability to cope with shocks and also they are subject to substantial shocks, such as weather variability (Dercon, 2005; Fafchamps, 2003). This concern has led to an emerging literature on vulnerability measures in development economics (Ligon and Schechter, 2003; 2004; Kamanou and Morduch, 2005; Calvo and Dercon, 2005; Kurosaki 2006a). We broadly think people as vulnerable when (i) they cannot mitigate income volatility and (ii) their consumption expenditure is volatile over time (they lack reliable coping mechanisms). Vulnerability is thus a forward-looking concept. As an example of low-income countries subject to substantial vulnerability, this paper examines the case of Pakistan. Pakistan is located in South Asia, where more than 500million people or about 40% were estimated to live below the poverty line at the turn of the century (World Bank, 2001). Economic development in South Asia has been characterized by a moderate success in economic growth with a substantial failure in human development such as basic health, education and gender equality (Dr`eze and Sen, 1995). This characteristic is most apparent in Pakistan (World Bank, 2002). Although the overall economic growth rates were improved during the 2000s, poverty reduction was slower than expected. Using a two period panel dataset spanning three years from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), one of the four provinces comprising Pakistan, Kurosaki (2006a) and Kurosaki (2006b) show that rural households were indeed vulnerable to substantial welfare fluctuations. Using a three-year pan el dataset from Pakistans Punjab, Kurosaki (1998) shows that farmers consumption was excessively sensitive to idiosyncratic shocks to their non-farm income. Similar findings have been accumulated for rural India as well (Townsend, 1994; Kurosaki 2001). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impacts of disasters and locates the proposed analysis within the disaster risk management paradigm. In section 3, we present the data and methodology used for projecting the economic impacts for a medium term horizon (up to 5 years after an event), as well as the regression analysis used for identifying predictor variables explaining potential impacts. Section 4 ends with a discussion of possible implications of our analysis. Literature Review The literature on impacts of natural disasters and economic effects is still inadequate and can be separated generally into three different categories. One part of the literature has focused on how several factors intensify susceptibility to natural events. They have maintained a natural vulnerability framework in view of climate change, deforestation and geophysical factors (McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002), other than rising urbanization which brings ecological risks and exposure to threats from deficiency of sufficient urban development and dual political discourse (Pelling, 2003 and 2003a), or even environmental immediacy to exposure, access to property and public conveniences as well as political and social networks (Bosher, 2007). All these parts become a thread to population, their assets and possessions and their dynamic competence, becoming then an expected risk. And when such danger is realized, then it turns out to be a natural adversity (see McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002). Although this thread of the literature distinguishes that such risk factors influence the impact of the natural tragedy, they just briefly point out essentially the number of losses, or some irregular overheads. A second thread of the literature spotlights on the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic pointers. Auffret (2003) examined the impact of natural catastrophe on Latin America and the Caribbean, and figured out the impact very considerable, particularly for the Caribbean, where the explosive nature of expenditure is higher than in other parts of the world, where insufficient risk-management instruments have been available in the region. This part of the literature has been still conflicting to some extent. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have also explained that the lasting impact of natural events on economic development of any country is negative, while Skidmore and Toya (2002) reveal that such tragedies may also have a constructive impact in the future growth, resulting from a decrease to returns to physical assets but an enlargement in human capital. Strobl (2008) discovers for the US coastal counties that cyclones cut districts intensification at first by 0.8 per cent, at the same time as recuperating after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a unhelpful storm is a decline of 0.8 percent of fiscal increase (Strobl, 2008a). When investigating what extra features cut or amplify the impact of such natural tragedies on macro pointers, Kahn (2005) and Toya and Skidmore (2007) explain that organizations, top education and trade openness, in addition to well-built economic segment and smaller governments are significant aspects in shaping the impact that natural events have on growth at global level. The third tributary of the literature takes care of the impact and coping means for such tragic events generally at the domestic and township levels. At this point, natural adversities are upsets that family units have to face as they are unpleasant proceedings leading to a decline in earnings or utilization, and in addition a loss in industrious property. Alderman et al (2006) by means of data for family units in Zimbabwe spotlighted on height growth of kids as result of a deficiency and civil war in Zimbabwe, result that kids influenced by such upsets have less schooling and could have been tall; if not. Dercon (2004) focused on development in utilization amongst family units in chosen villages in Ethiopia, and did not discover that upsets have an effect in the diminution of assets. Carter et al (2007) examined the impact of droughts in Ethiopia and of cyclone Mitch in Honduras on development of belongings at the village level. For Ethiopia they uncover a model of assets leveling between low income family units, i.e. such families keep hold of their assets even they are little in phases where profits and usage drops off, for instance the big deficiency aroused. They discover for Honduran families that comparatively well-off families recovered earlier from the upset than short income households, and that a poverty corner is put below a specified point of income. Baez and Santos (2007) also examined the sound effects of Mitch on households pointers, discovering no outcome on school admissions of kids, but a noteworthy add to their labor contribution. Others have investigated how some coping methods inside families have an effect on revival from a shock resulting from such an adversity. De Janvry et al (2006) explains that uncertain cash transfer accessibility before a disaster provide as a shelter for those who are affected, while those dependent and helpless people utilize as coping method an add to child labor, and savings in food and school expenses. Alpizar (2007) also discovers that access to proper economic services takes the edge off pessimistic outcomes from natural disaster upsets for farmers in El Salvador, as it leads to further proficient production. On the other hand, a less urbanized region is the impact at local level. Yamano et al (2007) explain about industries and production. These writers makes use of region-wise data for employment and production, guessing that financial fatalities are not in proportion to the sharing of manufacturing activities and people attention, signifying that strategies to improve losses should be measured from a top order. Burrus et al (2002) also examined how low intensity typhoons can shock local financial systems from side to side interruption of actions. They exercise statistics from the local Chambers of Commerce surveys and as a result of their regularity the bang could be a decrease between 0.8 and 1.23 per cent of yearly production and up to 1.6 per cent of local employment. Though, there is a slit in the study of how local communal indicators are exaggerated by natural events. This is significant to bring to the front as the effects give the impression of being stretch around all unlike points, macro, micro and local, and how strategies to deal with those upsets can be premeditated in a good way. Whereas families emerge as the natural component of investigation for researching the consequences of natural disasters, it can also seem right to balance the study up as families react to risks are frequently influenced by the broader strategy framework. Certainly, households have substantial and insubstantial assets at their clearance, and their capability to preserve or gather together such assets in such situations will be produced by the arrangements and procedures for instance governance and institutional planning, broader strategies and open circumstances at metropolitan and district level. Additionally, the experience of family units to danger loss can and has been conventionally balanced up to top levels of aggregation (UNDP, 2008). It is the number of citizens situated in definite parts joint with the individual, material and ecological conditions of families and the regions where they live that forms their communal potential to deal with a natural disaster. For that reason, we refer to the community level of study while thinking of the inferences that dangers can have. Governments have a tendency to go on board in various approaches to deal with natural happenings. In the past, they have usually reacted through disaster relief, but more lately there has been a propensity to highlight cash transfers as well. Even if both methods are adopted extra efficiency could be consummate by adopting danger diminution and improvement means that deal with the structural aspects which make families more uncovered to natural risks. Having system in position previous to the awareness of dangers is primary. At the macro level, premature warning systems and the public disaster-preparedness agenda look as if mostly significant, so as sufficient economic assets to promote revival, over and above tax inducements for households or public to take on mitigation procedures. Another type of protecting the value of material goods at the macro level could be through financial diversification. Increasing primary, secondary and tertiary sector activities along with spatial activities in the economy, can offer an open pool to multiply the risk of anguish danger losses, and extra prospects to amplify and steady profits. Equally, the concentration of financial and sector-wise activities would be reliable with condensed capability of families to administer and react to natural disasters. Still, there is a set of insubstantial facts which might improve the family hard work to get through the outcome of natural vulnerability on them, just as adverse socio-economic opportunities. The political economy and organizational aspects of the situation where assets are positioned together with the system of belief, norm and ideas set in the activities of communities members might bear out elementary while utilizing and mobilizing assets for confronting disasters. If possible, one should be capable to clarify how civilization and supremacy provision come into play when they act together with the broader surroundings of risks, assets and wellbeing results. However, most of these features will be tough to get into work empirically for the period of our technical study. Flourishing coping against natural disasters is difficult to achieve in a situation of small efficiency, staled financial development, not having access to industrious possessions, deficiency of economic reserves and safety nets in place, and broad difference crossways geographic, financial, or tribal lines. Lack of health conveniences, remoteness and low rate of education may also complex these susceptibility. Consequently, the covariate life of various natural hazards and the policy-tempted macro circumstances upsetting the rate and likelihood of effectively coping with them might reflect unreliable welfare shocks across region and sub-region levels. At last, societies can make worse these natural, site and practice-specific aspects through not making any investment in substantial and communal infrastructure at the household and district level (roads and bridges). In case of rural areas, these deficiencies can be multifaceted by a high frequency of hazards because of being covered hazard-prone areas, extending the vulnerability of families to experience any losses. Although the impact a natural disaster is an outside factor, susceptibility of causes, making the shock of the event high or low, is not. Susceptibility to natural hazards is a composite subject, as it is determined by the monetary model, the phase of growth, current social and fiscal situation, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and greatness of hazards, etc. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the influenced agents in natural hazards. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can recognize the need for outside support and which may be extra effectual. Second, exact sections of affected can be recognized, e.g. how short income families are influenced, uniqueness of regions etc; and third, it may be also helpful for setting up backing for natural hazards and the possible penalty. They also summarize how the impact of natural hazards should consider other means. One of the main questions concerning the impact of natural hazards on families or towns is how accidental they may be. Donner (2007) examined the effects of hurricanes in the US and figured out that the effects are not accidental, because some aspects such as ecological, society, demographic, and scientific, have an occurrence on the impact of such events. On the whole the flow of impact of natural hazards can be sketched as in Figure 1. figure1.PNG Figure 1. Model of Disaster Impact Other aspect is how establishment have defined practices concerning natural events and how they systematize help in the outcome can also be determinant of the crash. Such as, Peacok and Girard (1997) explain how the revitalization process after tornado in Florida was determined more by governmental obstructions rather than lack of resources. Limited Literature is available which studies the quantitative relationship between the economy and the natural disasters. Zarrar et al (2009) studied the impact of natural disasters on the Irans Gross domestic product. They adopted a auto regressive distributed Lag model in order to study the impact. The findings showed that natural disasters have negative impact on the GDP per capita and on Per captia investment. The result of the model test was that investment had a positive impact on the economy while negative impact on GDP from the damages from the loss of Physical capital. Macro economic variables determine the impact of these natural disasters on the long run economic growth. Aaron (2007) found that financial crises caused by these disasters hurt the long run growth through inflation. This inflation is the result of increased debt burden. Other reason for this inflation could be that central bank print excess notes to pay the external and internal debt. Also the tax collection is also affected which hurdles the government efforts in compensating the losses. However the loss in revenue is compensated by the help of the Loans and aid given by the international institutions. They include the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union. These loans and aid influence the economic growth in the short as well as the in the long run. Pelling (2002) in his work identified that the most important macroeconomic impact of natural disaster can be studied by examining the inflation trends in the economy. More over the public expenditures by the government and the aid flowing as foreign direct investment influences the GDP growth rate. The used a comparative analysis technique of comparing different case studies to determine the macro-economic effects. These effects are measured by plotting the trends in GDP against macro economic factors i.e Inflation ,FDI and Loans. The literature review discusses the direct and indirect impact of economic variables on the economy. However in this research work only the impact of macro economic variables is studied. From the support of Literature review the macro economic variables which can be used to measure the quantitative impact of natural disasters on the GDP growth of Pakistan are Inflation, Internal and external debts, Foreign Aid and foreign direct investment flowing in the country. In next section of research we will take into account the above macroeconomic variables with the purpose of concluding the impact of natural disasters on the economy of Pakistan. Methodology Research Type In order to identify the macroeconomic effects of disasters, we suggest comparing a counterfactual situation ex-post to the observed state of the system ex-post. This involves assessing the potential trajectory (projected unaffected economy without disaster) versus the observed state of the economy. This contrasts with observing economic performance post-event and actual performance pre-event, as usually done in similar analysis. Our analysis requires projecting economic development into a future without an event. In short, the type of research would be purely Quantitative. Sources of Data Our two main sources of Data are: The open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. The proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database. Data type and Research Periods Our sample consists of all major natural disaster events during 1950-2010. The sample is based on information from two databases and was compiled by Okuyama (2009) with the threshold for a large event defined arbitrarily to a loss exceeding 1 percent of GDP.One database is the open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. Primary data are compiled for various purposes, such as informing relief and reconstruction requirements internationally or nationally, and data are generally collected from various sources and, including UN agencies, non-governmental organizations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. The other database is the proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database, which mainly serves to inform insurance and reinsurance pricing. We focus on the monetary losses. In both datasets, loss data follow no uniform definition and are collected for different purposes such as assessing donor needs for relief and reconstruction, assessing potential impacts on economic aggregates and defining insurance losses. We distinguish between sudden and slow onset events. Key sudden-onset events are extreme geotectonic events (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, slow mass movements) and extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods and winter storms. Slow-onset natural disasters are either of a periodically recurrent or permanent nature; these are droughts and desertification. We broadly associate the loss data with asset losses, i.e. damages to produced capital. This is a simplification, as indirect impacts, such as business interruption, may also be factored into the data. Yet, generally, at least for the sudden onset events, analysts generally equate the data with asset losses, and an indication that this assumption can be maintained is the fact that loss data are usually relatively quickly available after a catastrophe, which indicates that flow impacts emanating over months to years are usually not considered. Losses are compared to estimates of capital stock from Sanderson and Striessnig (2009), which estimated stocks using the perpetual inventory method based on Penn World table information on investments starting in 1900 and assuming annual growth and depreciation of 4 percent. Theoretical Framework and variables under consideration Theoretical Framework to be used in this essay to explain Economical Impacts on Pakistan due to Natural Disasters. Economical Impacts GDP Exposure Socioeconomic Susceptibility Direct Risks Produced Resources Environment Resources Human Resources Type of Hazard Physical Susceptibility Risk Management The literature on the monetary impacts explained can be associated with framework above. Independent Variables: Independent Determinants of such impacts and dangers can be renowned as: Hazard Variable: This variable is related to the type of Natural disaster/Hazard that jolts any part of Pakistan. Exposure: This variable deals with the geographical area and spatial scale of impact from the particular disaster. Economical Structure: This variable deals with the overall structure of the economy in the country and in particular region affected by the disaster (if needed). Development: This determinant deals with risks that might directly or indirectly affect the stage of the development of the country. Socioeconomic Environment: It is related to the current socioeconomic conditions in the country. Risk Management: This takes care of the availability of formal and informal mechanisms to share risks in a particular part of the country. The last four variables are related to economic susceptibility. Research Hypothesis H0: Natural Disasters do not have any significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. H1: Natural Disasters do have significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. Techniques We use autoregressive integrated moving average models, also called ARIMA (p,d,q) (Box and Jenkins, 1976) for forecasting GDP into the future after the disaster event. ARIMA modeling approaches are chosen because they are sufficiently general to handle virtually all empirically observed patterns and often used for GDP forecasting (see for example Abeysinghe and Rajaguru, 2004). While such a type of modeling may be criticized for its black box approach (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989), it here serves well due to the large number of projections to be made and the difficulty identifying suitable economic model approaches. The ARIMA process Recall, an autoregressive process of order AR (p) can be defined as x t = à Ã¢â‚¬  1x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  2x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 ++ à Ã¢â‚¬  px tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢p + ÃŽÂ µt A moving-average process of order MA (q) may be written as xt =ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 +ÃŽÂ ¸ 2ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 +à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦+ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q and an ARMA(p,q) process, with p autoregressive and q moving average terms can be defined to be xt =à Ã¢â‚¬  1xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++à Ã¢â‚¬   p xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ p +ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q Where à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ are parameters to be estimated and ÃŽÂ µ are white noise stochastic error terms. Now, let yt be a non-stationary series and define the first order regular difference of yt as Άyt = yt à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ytà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 or more generally using a back-shift operator denoted as Bk zt = ztà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢k yt B d yt Άd = (1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) An ARIMA (p,d,q) model can then be expressed as yt q B t B B d à Ã¢â‚¬   p ( )(1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) =ÃŽÂ ¸ ( )ÃŽÂ µ with B p à Ã¢â‚¬   p (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬  1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬   p and Bq ÃŽÂ ¸ q (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸ q Data Analysis The Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) is applied for determining the components of the ARIMA process; i.e. we test different ARIMA(p,d,q) models with p and q to be smaller or equal 4 (due to the limited amount of data) and estimate à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ using Maximum likelihood techniques and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as well as diagnostic checks to detect a suitable model. The data requirements were set thus that at least 5 observed data points are needed for projections into the future. This is the smallest number of observations which are needed to estimate ARIMA (4,1,4) models (however, the majority of the sample (greater 90 percent) has at least 10 data points). Furthermore, all models are tested to be stationary (usually d=1 suffices to assure a stationary process) and all series are demeaned. To include uncertainty in the projections, also 95 percent confidence forecasts were calculated and analyzed. Forecasts into the future are performed with the selected models and then compared to the observed variables. Increases or decreases of GDP in future years are measured as a percentage increase or decrease to baseline GDP (i.e., baseline =100) which is defined to be GDP a year before the disaster event. Furthermore, the differences between observed values and projected ones are calculated and called Diff(t), which indicates the percentage difference between the observed and projected value of GDP in year t. We focus on projections with a medium term perspective (up to 5 years into the future). This limitation is due to important data constraints for the ARIMA models within

Marcus Garvey Essay -- Garvey biography Biographies bio Essays

Marcus Garvey "We declare to the world that Africa must be free, that the Negro race must be emancipated (p. 137 Altman, Susan. Extraordinary Black Americans.)" are the famous words delivered by Marcus Mosiah Garvey. Born a West Indian, he later became a powerful revolutionary who led the nation into the Civil Rights Movement. Garvey dedicated his life to the "uplifting" of the Negro and to millions of Black people everywhere, he represented dignity and self-respect. Like Malcolm X of a later generation, he believed that Negroes could never achieve equality unless they became independent-founding their own nations and governments, businesses and industrial enterprises, and their own military establishments which are the same institutions by which other peoples of the world have risen to power. Marcus Gravey was the eleventh child of Marcus and Sarah Gravey. He was born in 1887 in St. Ann’s Bay, a rural town on the north coast of Jamaica in the British West Indies. Garvey learnd at a young age about the differences between the races. Being one of the few Blacks on the island, Garvey often played with the children of his white neighbors. The little girl who lived next to the Garvey’s home informed Marcus that she was being sent away to school in Scotland and that she was instructed by her parents "never to write or try to get in touch with me, for I was a ‘nigger.’" Although he was a good student, financial problems forced him to leave school at fourteen and become an apprentice. After helping organize a strike, Gravey was fired from his job. Garvey’s mind was clearly on politics and the need for organization rather than on his vocation. In 1910 Garvey helped to found a political organization named the Nation Club. He created the Watchman, the first of his many newspapers. The failure of both ventures made evident the need for money to fun his political activities and Garvey joined the stream of West Indian workers migrating to Central and South America in search of better opportunities. He worked briefly on a banana plantation in Costa Rica and for a newspaper in Panama and then went to London, England. While there, he worked for an Egyptian scholar, and learned much of the history of Africa, particularly with reference to the exploitation of black peoples by colonial powers. After reading "Up From Slavery," ... ...her leader had before him. From a more historically viewpoint, Marcus Garvey must be regarded as an incredible visionary. Marcus Garvey was a man who undertook enormous and grandiose ideas and goals to empower and rise Black people all over the world. A man literally driven by the notion that the Negro's sole means for achieving a unique culture in the 20th century was through the foundation of a unified, separatist empire in Africa. Although his ideas, in their ultimate form, may have been rejected by some of the people of his day, it is clear that, since then, these very same ideas in a different perspective have had a favorable influence on the policies of many Negro leaders throughout history. BIBLIOGRAPHY Altman, Susan. Extraordinary Black Americans. ©1989. Childrens Press: Chicago. pp. 137-138 Cronon, David E. Great Lives Observed (Marcus Garvey). ©1973, Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs. Franklin, John H. Black Leaders of the Twentieth Century ©1982, University of Illinois Press: Chicago. pp. 105-138 Ploski, Harry A. The Negro Almanac. ©1971, Bellwether Publishing Company: New York. pp. 135-138 & 232

Drama Monolouge

All my life I have had aspirations to become an ambitious and strong leader, I wanted to grow up and become the president of the United States of America. I had many dreams and hopes that would make the world I lived in a better place for the people of America. That was all changed because of one man, my father. He was very old fashioned, he wanted me to follow in his ‘footsteps' and have a ‘meagre' job as a farmer. I hated my father, he was a cruel man. He was a heavy drinker – a dire alcoholic. In the end my mother and I had enough of his attitude and problems; he used to become very abusive and violent towards us for the smallest of reasons so my mother and I left home when I was only ten years old. I never heard from him ever again from that day on. I received word that he died a lonely death just last year but I must say that even so I am happy that he was alone after all the suffering he caused on my mother and me. Even Now I hate reminiscing about my child hood, I grew up during the cold war, I despised the fact that I could have been blown to pieces at any moment by a Russian nuclear weapon. I loathed the fact that I could lose my friends and the only family member I had – my mother at any second. That's when it happened, my mother passed away. She committed suicide. She took an overdose of pills, and to think I was only fourteen when this occurred. That was the moment I had no one in my life. All my family was gone. My mother just could not handle life anymore. She was jobless and we had little income. I had to work after school in a little cafà ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½, clearing up the place just to earn enough money to feed us that night. I had to go to school and work at such a young age. Her life became unbearable then ‘click' (N.B *click your fingers during the performance) she was gone. That was I had the burden of deciding my future, I had the choice of going back to live with my father or to stay with a foster family that had been found for me to live with. I did not want to live with my father because he would oppress me again. I decided to live with a foster family. My foster father was a colonel in the army so he would always be away working with the government. My foster mother was always at home, she would always tell me amazing stories about her husband and how he was helping America. I appreciated the way she looked after me, and having a foster father who you could look up to and respect was for me truly inspirational. He was the father that my real father could not be. My foster parents encouraged me to follow my dream. I studied and excelled in my work so that one day I could live my dream as a reality and lead America in to a free and peaceful tomorrow. I have almost fulfilled that and can not begin to show my gratitude towards the people who raised me into what I am today. Through all of that though I will never forget my real mother. For her I will become the most patriotic man to walk America. Use of Movement For the opening of the monologue I am going to be positioned near to the corner of the room. I will slowly walk from the corner towards center stage at a diagonal. My facial expression should be firm and strong with a hint of vacancy. When delivering the opening I would inhale deeply so that my chest will push outwards. Facial expression should show some what pride and slightly joyful when speaking. Slowly walking towards the audience for the delivery of the second paragraph. Moving upstage in a straight line. Now with a slightly more grimace tone on my face. When speaking I would be using powerful arm gestures throughout the paragraph. The arm gestures are to be what seems to the audience random, jerky and fast. Ideally when mentioning the facts about my father I would use powerful arm movements. Now I should be walking backwards in a straight line but slowly while delivering this paragraph, I should return to the position at the centre of the stage where I delivered my opening from. My facial expression should be very strong and firm showing my anger but with a certain amount of fear and concern. Showing anger by frowning at this stage will affect the drama positively. Arm gestures should be made specifically on the phrases ‘blown to pieces' and ‘loathed'. When speaking I would be looking down slightly towards the floor. At centre stage before the performance I would have set up a chair specifically for this paragraph. With a bereaved expression, this paragraph is to be acted out while seated. Having my head in my hands would highlight the emotion with me taking my head out of my hands after each sentence and looking up at the audience. Now, for this section I would stand up for this paragraph. Positioned center stage, with smooth arm gestures moving outwards after every sentence. For the final section of this monologue, I would again come towards the audience in a straight line. Slowly getting closer with each word and using arm gestures such as clenching my fists throughout the paragraph with tense but sustained movements. Positioned upstage at the center where I would become noticeable to the audience. Then to end I would finish with a freeze with my hand placed over my heart, with a still and strong finish sustained. Use of Voice The prologue to the monologue should be started in a very proud and optimistic tone, with particular expression put on the adjectives such as ‘ambitious' and ‘strong'. The opening should be at a medium pace but at the same time calm and smooth whilst expressing a joyful opening. Now with the second section bathos – a change in tone should occur. With the emotional content in this part, the tone should change to sad. I would change my voice so it is in a hurried fashion. While sadness is shown at particular points when concentrating on the words ‘footsteps' and ‘meagre' sarcasm should be shown. The paragraph should be sharp and at a quite heavy and loud tone but maintaining the emotion at the same time. A protective tone of voice should be adopted when talking about your mother and yourself becoming subjects to violence. When mentioning that you were happy when your father passed away, a glimmer of hatred and evil would affect the piece positively. When speaking here a similar tone should be maintained as the previous section. Here concentrating on how your childhood had burdens. Subsequently expressing your self through exaggeration when talking about being blown to pieces b a nuclear bomb at any moment. With jealousy expressed when using the word ‘loathed'. This part of the monologue should be performed in a lethargic tone of voice. Speaking slowly with a twitchy voice after every few words or so. Contrasting the first paragraph drastically. Stressing on the points of your mother dying and having a job and school to consider, using deliberately pessimistic tone. With the humorous type of sarcasm when saying ‘click' then she was gone. Mood and tone are again contrasted from the last segment of the monologue. Tone should be a significant amount more formal and with signs of things becoming better for you. Fast pace but with optimistic tones present. Pace should be built up for the conclusion with it going from a slow opening to the end to a climactic finish. Contrast again to the last paragraph. Tones of self belief and strongly sustained. Pauses after every sentence should be invoked. A build up is required for a dramatic ending. Optimism and varied loudness should be used until the last line. A dramatic impact with the uses of the emotions of pride joy but a hint of sadness. A calm expression of voice near the beginning would aid the build up. With a use of a loud voice at the end of the passage to highlight the end. The ending should not be conflicted with any sarcasm because it would ruin the stage for a grand finish with all of your energy inputted into it. Impact on Audience With the opening I want to project the mood of pride and optimism. The audience should get the sensation of a meaningful and joyous introduction. It should engage the audience in to thinking whether the monologue will be †cheerful† or †gloomy† in the simplest of terms. The voice should convey a message that it is an optimistic opening and is filled with happiness. The issue that should raise a question and again make the audience think is where I enter from. Why did I enter from the corner of the room? The reason v=being it has a hidden meaning of despair about it – the despair being obvious later on during the performance. The contrast should stun the audience. With the sarcasm and cruelty with speech it should make the audience feel pathos for me. The movement towards the audience should show tension. I want to communicate the feelings of hatred and anger through my voice so the audience can see that their first possible impression was wrong. I want to show them the frustration that has been built up in me for years. I am projecting myself to show them that I am furious about the past. I want to convey and portray my fear. Again a slight contrast to the previous paragraph. Even though fear and jealousy are invoked, at this point I want to try and make the audience feel what I feel – all the tension and fear from the war. I could make the audience involved by particular messages and use of body language. The audience should feel my emotion and feel they have lost something when they hear my tragic story of losing my mother. I want to portray a grieving relative / family member, but show the variation with the slight sarcasm with the ‘click' section. This has a deeper meaning – the audience may realise certain sarcasm. The burden upon me of choice should reflect the previous paragraph; I want to communicate the idea that still life for me is all hardship. The final paragraph should show the audience that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It shows the variation to them that can be seen throughout the piece. It should make them see that life is a virtue and that not everything is bad. Inspirational things can happen to anyone. The contrast is my method of acting out and showing to the audience a broader variety of emotions, language and movements. Belief and patriotism is another point I am trying to convey through the use of my language – this is shown when talking about my foster father and my dreams to turn America in to a peaceful country. The last line and sustained freeze would make a bold point by giving the piece a climactic finish and endeavour the audience to really see the provocative emotions used; in turn causing the audiences provoked reactions and mixed feelings to the piece. The object of my monologue was to convey many messages about voice, movement and dramatic performance in drama.