Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan Natural disasters are an increasingly phenomena that we all evidently observe and identify that may have a direct bang on the interests of an area where it hits and also on explicit domestic meters in such areas. Depending of where we live, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc, are intimidation to living, belongings, industrious assets, and also can have an impact on societal pointers. The increasing occurrence of natural disasters is extremely interrelated to the increasing susceptibility of homes and communities in emergent nations, as earlier socioeconomic vulnerabilities may aggravate the shock of a natural disaster, making harder the course of revitalization (Vatsa and Krimgold, 2000). Therefore, the impact of such events could consequence in an instant raise in poverty and deficiency (Carter et al, 2007). The literature has been still conflicting to a few amounts. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have discussed that the long-standing shock on development of natural disasters is depressing, at the same time as Skidmore and Toya (2002) explain that such tragedy may upbeat impact development in the long run as there is a decrease to returns on physical assets but a boost in human capital, leading to advanced development. Strobl (2008) for the US coastal areas discover that tornados reduce countys development originally by 0.8 per cent, whereas getting your str ength back after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a critical cyclone is a diminution of 0.8 percent of development (Strobl, 2008a). The impact of a natural disaster may also origin discriminations. The poor, who undergo from profits rise and fall, and also have imperfect access to monetary services, in the consequences of a disaster may be extra flat to lessen use and have a declining upset in other domestic indicators as a result. Additionally, there are a many non poor, or close to be, who are not insured in opposition to such threats, and then may plunge into scarcity as result of recapitalizing when dealing with with the upset, depending the shock and probability of diminishing into scarcity of the original stock assets and coping means. Furthermore, susceptibility to natural disasters is a multifaceted issue, as it is strong-minded by the financial structure, the phase of growth, prevailing of communal and fiscal conditions, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and concentration of catastrophes, etc. The impact on deprived ones could be losing contact with a few vital services, reversals in accretion of corporeal and human funds, and possibly an augment in child employment and unlawful behavior. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the pretentious agents in natural disasters. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can be acquainted with the need for peripheral support and which may be more efficient; second, definite sections of affected can be acknowledged, e.g. how low income families are affected; and third, it may be also practical for setting up assistance for natural disasters and the latent results. Overall, growing literature has emerged over the last few years on the macroeconomic and development impacts of natural disasters. Amusingly, there is as up till now no harmony on whether disasters are significant from a macroeconomic point of view, and two situations can be identified. The first believes natural disasters a hinder for economic development and is well symbolized by the following reference: It has been argued that although individuals are risk-averse, governments should take a risk-neutral stance. The reality of developing countries suggests otherwise. Government decisions should be based on the opportunity costs to society of the resources invested in the project and on the loss of economic assets, functions and products. In view of the responsibility vested in the public sector for the administration of scarce resources, and considering issues such as fiscal debt, trade balances, income distribution, and a wide range of other economic and social, and political concerns, governments should not act risk neutral (OAS, 1991). The other position sees disasters as entailing little growth implications and consider disasters and their reduction a problem of, but not for development (e.g. Albala-Bertrand, 1993, 2006; Caselli and Malhotra, 2004). These authors find natural disasters do not negatively affect GDP and if anything, GDP growth is improved (Albala-Bertrand, 1993: 207). This paper can be understood as an attempt at reconciling this body of literature. There are two entry points for the analysis. The first is to look at counterfactual vs. observed GDP, the second entry point is to assess disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets (human, produced, intangible), and, importantly vulnerability. Overall, the evidence reveals adverse macroeconomic consequences of disasters on GDP. In a medium-term analysis, natural disasters on average seem to lead to negative effects on GDP. The negative effects may be small, yet they can become more pronounced depending on the size of the shock. We tested a large number of vulnerability predictors and found that higher aid rates as well as higher remittances lessen the adverse macroeconomic consequences, while capital stock loss is the most important predictor for the negative consequences. In July-August 2010, Pakistan experienced the worst floods in its history The floods have affected 84 districts out of a total 121 districts in Pakistan, and more than 20 million people one-tenth of Pakistans population More than 1,700 men, women and children have lost their lives, and at least 1.8 million homes have been damaged or destroyed (UN 2010, p.1). In attacking poverty in developing countries, due considerations need to be paid to the vulnerability of households against natural disasters. Poor households are likely to suffer not only from low income and consumption on average but also from fluctuations of their welfare once such disasters occur. These households are vulnerable to a decline in their welfare level because they have limited ability to cope with shocks and also they are subject to substantial shocks, such as weather variability (Dercon, 2005; Fafchamps, 2003). This concern has led to an emerging literature on vulnerability measures in development economics (Ligon and Schechter, 2003; 2004; Kamanou and Morduch, 2005; Calvo and Dercon, 2005; Kurosaki 2006a). We broadly think people as vulnerable when (i) they cannot mitigate income volatility and (ii) their consumption expenditure is volatile over time (they lack reliable coping mechanisms). Vulnerability is thus a forward-looking concept. As an example of low-income countries subject to substantial vulnerability, this paper examines the case of Pakistan. Pakistan is located in South Asia, where more than 500million people or about 40% were estimated to live below the poverty line at the turn of the century (World Bank, 2001). Economic development in South Asia has been characterized by a moderate success in economic growth with a substantial failure in human development such as basic health, education and gender equality (Dr`eze and Sen, 1995). This characteristic is most apparent in Pakistan (World Bank, 2002). Although the overall economic growth rates were improved during the 2000s, poverty reduction was slower than expected. Using a two period panel dataset spanning three years from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), one of the four provinces comprising Pakistan, Kurosaki (2006a) and Kurosaki (2006b) show that rural households were indeed vulnerable to substantial welfare fluctuations. Using a three-year pan el dataset from Pakistans Punjab, Kurosaki (1998) shows that farmers consumption was excessively sensitive to idiosyncratic shocks to their non-farm income. Similar findings have been accumulated for rural India as well (Townsend, 1994; Kurosaki 2001). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impacts of disasters and locates the proposed analysis within the disaster risk management paradigm. In section 3, we present the data and methodology used for projecting the economic impacts for a medium term horizon (up to 5 years after an event), as well as the regression analysis used for identifying predictor variables explaining potential impacts. Section 4 ends with a discussion of possible implications of our analysis. Literature Review The literature on impacts of natural disasters and economic effects is still inadequate and can be separated generally into three different categories. One part of the literature has focused on how several factors intensify susceptibility to natural events. They have maintained a natural vulnerability framework in view of climate change, deforestation and geophysical factors (McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002), other than rising urbanization which brings ecological risks and exposure to threats from deficiency of sufficient urban development and dual political discourse (Pelling, 2003 and 2003a), or even environmental immediacy to exposure, access to property and public conveniences as well as political and social networks (Bosher, 2007). All these parts become a thread to population, their assets and possessions and their dynamic competence, becoming then an expected risk. And when such danger is realized, then it turns out to be a natural adversity (see McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002). Although this thread of the literature distinguishes that such risk factors influence the impact of the natural tragedy, they just briefly point out essentially the number of losses, or some irregular overheads. A second thread of the literature spotlights on the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic pointers. Auffret (2003) examined the impact of natural catastrophe on Latin America and the Caribbean, and figured out the impact very considerable, particularly for the Caribbean, where the explosive nature of expenditure is higher than in other parts of the world, where insufficient risk-management instruments have been available in the region. This part of the literature has been still conflicting to some extent. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have also explained that the lasting impact of natural events on economic development of any country is negative, while Skidmore and Toya (2002) reveal that such tragedies may also have a constructive impact in the future growth, resulting from a decrease to returns to physical assets but an enlargement in human capital. Strobl (2008) discovers for the US coastal counties that cyclones cut districts intensification at first by 0.8 per cent, at the same time as recuperating after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a unhelpful storm is a decline of 0.8 percent of fiscal increase (Strobl, 2008a). When investigating what extra features cut or amplify the impact of such natural tragedies on macro pointers, Kahn (2005) and Toya and Skidmore (2007) explain that organizations, top education and trade openness, in addition to well-built economic segment and smaller governments are significant aspects in shaping the impact that natural events have on growth at global level. The third tributary of the literature takes care of the impact and coping means for such tragic events generally at the domestic and township levels. At this point, natural adversities are upsets that family units have to face as they are unpleasant proceedings leading to a decline in earnings or utilization, and in addition a loss in industrious property. Alderman et al (2006) by means of data for family units in Zimbabwe spotlighted on height growth of kids as result of a deficiency and civil war in Zimbabwe, result that kids influenced by such upsets have less schooling and could have been tall; if not. Dercon (2004) focused on development in utilization amongst family units in chosen villages in Ethiopia, and did not discover that upsets have an effect in the diminution of assets. Carter et al (2007) examined the impact of droughts in Ethiopia and of cyclone Mitch in Honduras on development of belongings at the village level. For Ethiopia they uncover a model of assets leveling between low income family units, i.e. such families keep hold of their assets even they are little in phases where profits and usage drops off, for instance the big deficiency aroused. They discover for Honduran families that comparatively well-off families recovered earlier from the upset than short income households, and that a poverty corner is put below a specified point of income. Baez and Santos (2007) also examined the sound effects of Mitch on households pointers, discovering no outcome on school admissions of kids, but a noteworthy add to their labor contribution. Others have investigated how some coping methods inside families have an effect on revival from a shock resulting from such an adversity. De Janvry et al (2006) explains that uncertain cash transfer accessibility before a disaster provide as a shelter for those who are affected, while those dependent and helpless people utilize as coping method an add to child labor, and savings in food and school expenses. Alpizar (2007) also discovers that access to proper economic services takes the edge off pessimistic outcomes from natural disaster upsets for farmers in El Salvador, as it leads to further proficient production. On the other hand, a less urbanized region is the impact at local level. Yamano et al (2007) explain about industries and production. These writers makes use of region-wise data for employment and production, guessing that financial fatalities are not in proportion to the sharing of manufacturing activities and people attention, signifying that strategies to improve losses should be measured from a top order. Burrus et al (2002) also examined how low intensity typhoons can shock local financial systems from side to side interruption of actions. They exercise statistics from the local Chambers of Commerce surveys and as a result of their regularity the bang could be a decrease between 0.8 and 1.23 per cent of yearly production and up to 1.6 per cent of local employment. Though, there is a slit in the study of how local communal indicators are exaggerated by natural events. This is significant to bring to the front as the effects give the impression of being stretch around all unlike points, macro, micro and local, and how strategies to deal with those upsets can be premeditated in a good way. Whereas families emerge as the natural component of investigation for researching the consequences of natural disasters, it can also seem right to balance the study up as families react to risks are frequently influenced by the broader strategy framework. Certainly, households have substantial and insubstantial assets at their clearance, and their capability to preserve or gather together such assets in such situations will be produced by the arrangements and procedures for instance governance and institutional planning, broader strategies and open circumstances at metropolitan and district level. Additionally, the experience of family units to danger loss can and has been conventionally balanced up to top levels of aggregation (UNDP, 2008). It is the number of citizens situated in definite parts joint with the individual, material and ecological conditions of families and the regions where they live that forms their communal potential to deal with a natural disaster. For that reason, we refer to the community level of study while thinking of the inferences that dangers can have. Governments have a tendency to go on board in various approaches to deal with natural happenings. In the past, they have usually reacted through disaster relief, but more lately there has been a propensity to highlight cash transfers as well. Even if both methods are adopted extra efficiency could be consummate by adopting danger diminution and improvement means that deal with the structural aspects which make families more uncovered to natural risks. Having system in position previous to the awareness of dangers is primary. At the macro level, premature warning systems and the public disaster-preparedness agenda look as if mostly significant, so as sufficient economic assets to promote revival, over and above tax inducements for households or public to take on mitigation procedures. Another type of protecting the value of material goods at the macro level could be through financial diversification. Increasing primary, secondary and tertiary sector activities along with spatial activities in the economy, can offer an open pool to multiply the risk of anguish danger losses, and extra prospects to amplify and steady profits. Equally, the concentration of financial and sector-wise activities would be reliable with condensed capability of families to administer and react to natural disasters. Still, there is a set of insubstantial facts which might improve the family hard work to get through the outcome of natural vulnerability on them, just as adverse socio-economic opportunities. The political economy and organizational aspects of the situation where assets are positioned together with the system of belief, norm and ideas set in the activities of communities members might bear out elementary while utilizing and mobilizing assets for confronting disasters. If possible, one should be capable to clarify how civilization and supremacy provision come into play when they act together with the broader surroundings of risks, assets and wellbeing results. However, most of these features will be tough to get into work empirically for the period of our technical study. Flourishing coping against natural disasters is difficult to achieve in a situation of small efficiency, staled financial development, not having access to industrious possessions, deficiency of economic reserves and safety nets in place, and broad difference crossways geographic, financial, or tribal lines. Lack of health conveniences, remoteness and low rate of education may also complex these susceptibility. Consequently, the covariate life of various natural hazards and the policy-tempted macro circumstances upsetting the rate and likelihood of effectively coping with them might reflect unreliable welfare shocks across region and sub-region levels. At last, societies can make worse these natural, site and practice-specific aspects through not making any investment in substantial and communal infrastructure at the household and district level (roads and bridges). In case of rural areas, these deficiencies can be multifaceted by a high frequency of hazards because of being covered hazard-prone areas, extending the vulnerability of families to experience any losses. Although the impact a natural disaster is an outside factor, susceptibility of causes, making the shock of the event high or low, is not. Susceptibility to natural hazards is a composite subject, as it is determined by the monetary model, the phase of growth, current social and fiscal situation, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and greatness of hazards, etc. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the influenced agents in natural hazards. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can recognize the need for outside support and which may be extra effectual. Second, exact sections of affected can be recognized, e.g. how short income families are influenced, uniqueness of regions etc; and third, it may be also helpful for setting up backing for natural hazards and the possible penalty. They also summarize how the impact of natural hazards should consider other means. One of the main questions concerning the impact of natural hazards on families or towns is how accidental they may be. Donner (2007) examined the effects of hurricanes in the US and figured out that the effects are not accidental, because some aspects such as ecological, society, demographic, and scientific, have an occurrence on the impact of such events. On the whole the flow of impact of natural hazards can be sketched as in Figure 1. figure1.PNG Figure 1. Model of Disaster Impact Other aspect is how establishment have defined practices concerning natural events and how they systematize help in the outcome can also be determinant of the crash. Such as, Peacok and Girard (1997) explain how the revitalization process after tornado in Florida was determined more by governmental obstructions rather than lack of resources. Limited Literature is available which studies the quantitative relationship between the economy and the natural disasters. Zarrar et al (2009) studied the impact of natural disasters on the Irans Gross domestic product. They adopted a auto regressive distributed Lag model in order to study the impact. The findings showed that natural disasters have negative impact on the GDP per capita and on Per captia investment. The result of the model test was that investment had a positive impact on the economy while negative impact on GDP from the damages from the loss of Physical capital. Macro economic variables determine the impact of these natural disasters on the long run economic growth. Aaron (2007) found that financial crises caused by these disasters hurt the long run growth through inflation. This inflation is the result of increased debt burden. Other reason for this inflation could be that central bank print excess notes to pay the external and internal debt. Also the tax collection is also affected which hurdles the government efforts in compensating the losses. However the loss in revenue is compensated by the help of the Loans and aid given by the international institutions. They include the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union. These loans and aid influence the economic growth in the short as well as the in the long run. Pelling (2002) in his work identified that the most important macroeconomic impact of natural disaster can be studied by examining the inflation trends in the economy. More over the public expenditures by the government and the aid flowing as foreign direct investment influences the GDP growth rate. The used a comparative analysis technique of comparing different case studies to determine the macro-economic effects. These effects are measured by plotting the trends in GDP against macro economic factors i.e Inflation ,FDI and Loans. The literature review discusses the direct and indirect impact of economic variables on the economy. However in this research work only the impact of macro economic variables is studied. From the support of Literature review the macro economic variables which can be used to measure the quantitative impact of natural disasters on the GDP growth of Pakistan are Inflation, Internal and external debts, Foreign Aid and foreign direct investment flowing in the country. In next section of research we will take into account the above macroeconomic variables with the purpose of concluding the impact of natural disasters on the economy of Pakistan. Methodology Research Type In order to identify the macroeconomic effects of disasters, we suggest comparing a counterfactual situation ex-post to the observed state of the system ex-post. This involves assessing the potential trajectory (projected unaffected economy without disaster) versus the observed state of the economy. This contrasts with observing economic performance post-event and actual performance pre-event, as usually done in similar analysis. Our analysis requires projecting economic development into a future without an event. In short, the type of research would be purely Quantitative. Sources of Data Our two main sources of Data are: The open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. The proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database. Data type and Research Periods Our sample consists of all major natural disaster events during 1950-2010. The sample is based on information from two databases and was compiled by Okuyama (2009) with the threshold for a large event defined arbitrarily to a loss exceeding 1 percent of GDP.One database is the open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. Primary data are compiled for various purposes, such as informing relief and reconstruction requirements internationally or nationally, and data are generally collected from various sources and, including UN agencies, non-governmental organizations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. The other database is the proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database, which mainly serves to inform insurance and reinsurance pricing. We focus on the monetary losses. In both datasets, loss data follow no uniform definition and are collected for different purposes such as assessing donor needs for relief and reconstruction, assessing potential impacts on economic aggregates and defining insurance losses. We distinguish between sudden and slow onset events. Key sudden-onset events are extreme geotectonic events (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, slow mass movements) and extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods and winter storms. Slow-onset natural disasters are either of a periodically recurrent or permanent nature; these are droughts and desertification. We broadly associate the loss data with asset losses, i.e. damages to produced capital. This is a simplification, as indirect impacts, such as business interruption, may also be factored into the data. Yet, generally, at least for the sudden onset events, analysts generally equate the data with asset losses, and an indication that this assumption can be maintained is the fact that loss data are usually relatively quickly available after a catastrophe, which indicates that flow impacts emanating over months to years are usually not considered. Losses are compared to estimates of capital stock from Sanderson and Striessnig (2009), which estimated stocks using the perpetual inventory method based on Penn World table information on investments starting in 1900 and assuming annual growth and depreciation of 4 percent. Theoretical Framework and variables under consideration Theoretical Framework to be used in this essay to explain Economical Impacts on Pakistan due to Natural Disasters. Economical Impacts GDP Exposure Socioeconomic Susceptibility Direct Risks Produced Resources Environment Resources Human Resources Type of Hazard Physical Susceptibility Risk Management The literature on the monetary impacts explained can be associated with framework above. Independent Variables: Independent Determinants of such impacts and dangers can be renowned as: Hazard Variable: This variable is related to the type of Natural disaster/Hazard that jolts any part of Pakistan. Exposure: This variable deals with the geographical area and spatial scale of impact from the particular disaster. Economical Structure: This variable deals with the overall structure of the economy in the country and in particular region affected by the disaster (if needed). Development: This determinant deals with risks that might directly or indirectly affect the stage of the development of the country. Socioeconomic Environment: It is related to the current socioeconomic conditions in the country. Risk Management: This takes care of the availability of formal and informal mechanisms to share risks in a particular part of the country. The last four variables are related to economic susceptibility. Research Hypothesis H0: Natural Disasters do not have any significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. H1: Natural Disasters do have significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. Techniques We use autoregressive integrated moving average models, also called ARIMA (p,d,q) (Box and Jenkins, 1976) for forecasting GDP into the future after the disaster event. ARIMA modeling approaches are chosen because they are sufficiently general to handle virtually all empirically observed patterns and often used for GDP forecasting (see for example Abeysinghe and Rajaguru, 2004). While such a type of modeling may be criticized for its black box approach (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989), it here serves well due to the large number of projections to be made and the difficulty identifying suitable economic model approaches. The ARIMA process Recall, an autoregressive process of order AR (p) can be defined as x t = à Ã¢â‚¬  1x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  2x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 ++ à Ã¢â‚¬  px tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢p + ÃŽÂ µt A moving-average process of order MA (q) may be written as xt =ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 +ÃŽÂ ¸ 2ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 +à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦+ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q and an ARMA(p,q) process, with p autoregressive and q moving average terms can be defined to be xt =à Ã¢â‚¬  1xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++à Ã¢â‚¬   p xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ p +ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q Where à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ are parameters to be estimated and ÃŽÂ µ are white noise stochastic error terms. Now, let yt be a non-stationary series and define the first order regular difference of yt as Άyt = yt à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ytà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 or more generally using a back-shift operator denoted as Bk zt = ztà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢k yt B d yt Άd = (1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) An ARIMA (p,d,q) model can then be expressed as yt q B t B B d à Ã¢â‚¬   p ( )(1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) =ÃŽÂ ¸ ( )ÃŽÂ µ with B p à Ã¢â‚¬   p (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬  1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬   p and Bq ÃŽÂ ¸ q (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸ q Data Analysis The Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) is applied for determining the components of the ARIMA process; i.e. we test different ARIMA(p,d,q) models with p and q to be smaller or equal 4 (due to the limited amount of data) and estimate à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ using Maximum likelihood techniques and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as well as diagnostic checks to detect a suitable model. The data requirements were set thus that at least 5 observed data points are needed for projections into the future. This is the smallest number of observations which are needed to estimate ARIMA (4,1,4) models (however, the majority of the sample (greater 90 percent) has at least 10 data points). Furthermore, all models are tested to be stationary (usually d=1 suffices to assure a stationary process) and all series are demeaned. To include uncertainty in the projections, also 95 percent confidence forecasts were calculated and analyzed. Forecasts into the future are performed with the selected models and then compared to the observed variables. Increases or decreases of GDP in future years are measured as a percentage increase or decrease to baseline GDP (i.e., baseline =100) which is defined to be GDP a year before the disaster event. Furthermore, the differences between observed values and projected ones are calculated and called Diff(t), which indicates the percentage difference between the observed and projected value of GDP in year t. We focus on projections with a medium term perspective (up to 5 years into the future). This limitation is due to important data constraints for the ARIMA models within

Marcus Garvey Essay -- Garvey biography Biographies bio Essays

Marcus Garvey "We declare to the world that Africa must be free, that the Negro race must be emancipated (p. 137 Altman, Susan. Extraordinary Black Americans.)" are the famous words delivered by Marcus Mosiah Garvey. Born a West Indian, he later became a powerful revolutionary who led the nation into the Civil Rights Movement. Garvey dedicated his life to the "uplifting" of the Negro and to millions of Black people everywhere, he represented dignity and self-respect. Like Malcolm X of a later generation, he believed that Negroes could never achieve equality unless they became independent-founding their own nations and governments, businesses and industrial enterprises, and their own military establishments which are the same institutions by which other peoples of the world have risen to power. Marcus Gravey was the eleventh child of Marcus and Sarah Gravey. He was born in 1887 in St. Ann’s Bay, a rural town on the north coast of Jamaica in the British West Indies. Garvey learnd at a young age about the differences between the races. Being one of the few Blacks on the island, Garvey often played with the children of his white neighbors. The little girl who lived next to the Garvey’s home informed Marcus that she was being sent away to school in Scotland and that she was instructed by her parents "never to write or try to get in touch with me, for I was a ‘nigger.’" Although he was a good student, financial problems forced him to leave school at fourteen and become an apprentice. After helping organize a strike, Gravey was fired from his job. Garvey’s mind was clearly on politics and the need for organization rather than on his vocation. In 1910 Garvey helped to found a political organization named the Nation Club. He created the Watchman, the first of his many newspapers. The failure of both ventures made evident the need for money to fun his political activities and Garvey joined the stream of West Indian workers migrating to Central and South America in search of better opportunities. He worked briefly on a banana plantation in Costa Rica and for a newspaper in Panama and then went to London, England. While there, he worked for an Egyptian scholar, and learned much of the history of Africa, particularly with reference to the exploitation of black peoples by colonial powers. After reading "Up From Slavery," ... ...her leader had before him. From a more historically viewpoint, Marcus Garvey must be regarded as an incredible visionary. Marcus Garvey was a man who undertook enormous and grandiose ideas and goals to empower and rise Black people all over the world. A man literally driven by the notion that the Negro's sole means for achieving a unique culture in the 20th century was through the foundation of a unified, separatist empire in Africa. Although his ideas, in their ultimate form, may have been rejected by some of the people of his day, it is clear that, since then, these very same ideas in a different perspective have had a favorable influence on the policies of many Negro leaders throughout history. BIBLIOGRAPHY Altman, Susan. Extraordinary Black Americans. ©1989. Childrens Press: Chicago. pp. 137-138 Cronon, David E. Great Lives Observed (Marcus Garvey). ©1973, Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs. Franklin, John H. Black Leaders of the Twentieth Century ©1982, University of Illinois Press: Chicago. pp. 105-138 Ploski, Harry A. The Negro Almanac. ©1971, Bellwether Publishing Company: New York. pp. 135-138 & 232

Drama Monolouge

All my life I have had aspirations to become an ambitious and strong leader, I wanted to grow up and become the president of the United States of America. I had many dreams and hopes that would make the world I lived in a better place for the people of America. That was all changed because of one man, my father. He was very old fashioned, he wanted me to follow in his ‘footsteps' and have a ‘meagre' job as a farmer. I hated my father, he was a cruel man. He was a heavy drinker – a dire alcoholic. In the end my mother and I had enough of his attitude and problems; he used to become very abusive and violent towards us for the smallest of reasons so my mother and I left home when I was only ten years old. I never heard from him ever again from that day on. I received word that he died a lonely death just last year but I must say that even so I am happy that he was alone after all the suffering he caused on my mother and me. Even Now I hate reminiscing about my child hood, I grew up during the cold war, I despised the fact that I could have been blown to pieces at any moment by a Russian nuclear weapon. I loathed the fact that I could lose my friends and the only family member I had – my mother at any second. That's when it happened, my mother passed away. She committed suicide. She took an overdose of pills, and to think I was only fourteen when this occurred. That was the moment I had no one in my life. All my family was gone. My mother just could not handle life anymore. She was jobless and we had little income. I had to work after school in a little cafà ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½, clearing up the place just to earn enough money to feed us that night. I had to go to school and work at such a young age. Her life became unbearable then ‘click' (N.B *click your fingers during the performance) she was gone. That was I had the burden of deciding my future, I had the choice of going back to live with my father or to stay with a foster family that had been found for me to live with. I did not want to live with my father because he would oppress me again. I decided to live with a foster family. My foster father was a colonel in the army so he would always be away working with the government. My foster mother was always at home, she would always tell me amazing stories about her husband and how he was helping America. I appreciated the way she looked after me, and having a foster father who you could look up to and respect was for me truly inspirational. He was the father that my real father could not be. My foster parents encouraged me to follow my dream. I studied and excelled in my work so that one day I could live my dream as a reality and lead America in to a free and peaceful tomorrow. I have almost fulfilled that and can not begin to show my gratitude towards the people who raised me into what I am today. Through all of that though I will never forget my real mother. For her I will become the most patriotic man to walk America. Use of Movement For the opening of the monologue I am going to be positioned near to the corner of the room. I will slowly walk from the corner towards center stage at a diagonal. My facial expression should be firm and strong with a hint of vacancy. When delivering the opening I would inhale deeply so that my chest will push outwards. Facial expression should show some what pride and slightly joyful when speaking. Slowly walking towards the audience for the delivery of the second paragraph. Moving upstage in a straight line. Now with a slightly more grimace tone on my face. When speaking I would be using powerful arm gestures throughout the paragraph. The arm gestures are to be what seems to the audience random, jerky and fast. Ideally when mentioning the facts about my father I would use powerful arm movements. Now I should be walking backwards in a straight line but slowly while delivering this paragraph, I should return to the position at the centre of the stage where I delivered my opening from. My facial expression should be very strong and firm showing my anger but with a certain amount of fear and concern. Showing anger by frowning at this stage will affect the drama positively. Arm gestures should be made specifically on the phrases ‘blown to pieces' and ‘loathed'. When speaking I would be looking down slightly towards the floor. At centre stage before the performance I would have set up a chair specifically for this paragraph. With a bereaved expression, this paragraph is to be acted out while seated. Having my head in my hands would highlight the emotion with me taking my head out of my hands after each sentence and looking up at the audience. Now, for this section I would stand up for this paragraph. Positioned center stage, with smooth arm gestures moving outwards after every sentence. For the final section of this monologue, I would again come towards the audience in a straight line. Slowly getting closer with each word and using arm gestures such as clenching my fists throughout the paragraph with tense but sustained movements. Positioned upstage at the center where I would become noticeable to the audience. Then to end I would finish with a freeze with my hand placed over my heart, with a still and strong finish sustained. Use of Voice The prologue to the monologue should be started in a very proud and optimistic tone, with particular expression put on the adjectives such as ‘ambitious' and ‘strong'. The opening should be at a medium pace but at the same time calm and smooth whilst expressing a joyful opening. Now with the second section bathos – a change in tone should occur. With the emotional content in this part, the tone should change to sad. I would change my voice so it is in a hurried fashion. While sadness is shown at particular points when concentrating on the words ‘footsteps' and ‘meagre' sarcasm should be shown. The paragraph should be sharp and at a quite heavy and loud tone but maintaining the emotion at the same time. A protective tone of voice should be adopted when talking about your mother and yourself becoming subjects to violence. When mentioning that you were happy when your father passed away, a glimmer of hatred and evil would affect the piece positively. When speaking here a similar tone should be maintained as the previous section. Here concentrating on how your childhood had burdens. Subsequently expressing your self through exaggeration when talking about being blown to pieces b a nuclear bomb at any moment. With jealousy expressed when using the word ‘loathed'. This part of the monologue should be performed in a lethargic tone of voice. Speaking slowly with a twitchy voice after every few words or so. Contrasting the first paragraph drastically. Stressing on the points of your mother dying and having a job and school to consider, using deliberately pessimistic tone. With the humorous type of sarcasm when saying ‘click' then she was gone. Mood and tone are again contrasted from the last segment of the monologue. Tone should be a significant amount more formal and with signs of things becoming better for you. Fast pace but with optimistic tones present. Pace should be built up for the conclusion with it going from a slow opening to the end to a climactic finish. Contrast again to the last paragraph. Tones of self belief and strongly sustained. Pauses after every sentence should be invoked. A build up is required for a dramatic ending. Optimism and varied loudness should be used until the last line. A dramatic impact with the uses of the emotions of pride joy but a hint of sadness. A calm expression of voice near the beginning would aid the build up. With a use of a loud voice at the end of the passage to highlight the end. The ending should not be conflicted with any sarcasm because it would ruin the stage for a grand finish with all of your energy inputted into it. Impact on Audience With the opening I want to project the mood of pride and optimism. The audience should get the sensation of a meaningful and joyous introduction. It should engage the audience in to thinking whether the monologue will be †cheerful† or †gloomy† in the simplest of terms. The voice should convey a message that it is an optimistic opening and is filled with happiness. The issue that should raise a question and again make the audience think is where I enter from. Why did I enter from the corner of the room? The reason v=being it has a hidden meaning of despair about it – the despair being obvious later on during the performance. The contrast should stun the audience. With the sarcasm and cruelty with speech it should make the audience feel pathos for me. The movement towards the audience should show tension. I want to communicate the feelings of hatred and anger through my voice so the audience can see that their first possible impression was wrong. I want to show them the frustration that has been built up in me for years. I am projecting myself to show them that I am furious about the past. I want to convey and portray my fear. Again a slight contrast to the previous paragraph. Even though fear and jealousy are invoked, at this point I want to try and make the audience feel what I feel – all the tension and fear from the war. I could make the audience involved by particular messages and use of body language. The audience should feel my emotion and feel they have lost something when they hear my tragic story of losing my mother. I want to portray a grieving relative / family member, but show the variation with the slight sarcasm with the ‘click' section. This has a deeper meaning – the audience may realise certain sarcasm. The burden upon me of choice should reflect the previous paragraph; I want to communicate the idea that still life for me is all hardship. The final paragraph should show the audience that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It shows the variation to them that can be seen throughout the piece. It should make them see that life is a virtue and that not everything is bad. Inspirational things can happen to anyone. The contrast is my method of acting out and showing to the audience a broader variety of emotions, language and movements. Belief and patriotism is another point I am trying to convey through the use of my language – this is shown when talking about my foster father and my dreams to turn America in to a peaceful country. The last line and sustained freeze would make a bold point by giving the piece a climactic finish and endeavour the audience to really see the provocative emotions used; in turn causing the audiences provoked reactions and mixed feelings to the piece. The object of my monologue was to convey many messages about voice, movement and dramatic performance in drama.

An analytical study of the approaches to operations management - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 8 Words: 2448 Downloads: 7 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Management Essay Type Narrative essay Did you like this example? This report is aimed at comparing and contrasting the approaches to operations management in at different types of organisations. Operations management is a core contributor to a firms success and developing competency is widely recognized as a key factor in determining the strategic and competitive advantage of the firm. The author has chosen two broad categories of organizations i.e. product based and service based to analyse the practises and mutual differences between the approaches. The report begins by identification of different types of operations/transformation process in the chosen organizations and analysis of their suitability and adequacy. This is followed by a critical analysis of principles and concepts in terms of capacity planning, inventory management, supply chain design, performance measures and total quality management. The report concludes with an evaluation of the combination of these factors and its impact on competitiveness, innovation and sustainability of the different types of organizations being studied in this academic exercise. Operations Management an overview Operations management is an important area in managing a firm. It can be defined as the area of management related to design and operation of business processes in production of goods or services. In a nutshell, it is the transformation of resources into product and/or services as depicted in figure 1. The competitive advantage of a firm is directly impacted by the efficiency of utilization of available resources satisfying customer demand. (Slack et al 1995, Voss, 1995) Figure 1: Operations Management ( from sussex.ac.uk) Operations management serves the function of managing the process of converting inputs in terms of materials, labor, and energy into outputs in the form of goods and/or services. It is critical to ensure that the strategic direction of the firm is maintained by executing the tactical decisions of resource utilization to en sure that competitive advantage is maintained (Schmenner et al, 1998). A suitable example of efficient operations management is Apple Inc. Apple is a multinational corporation that designs and markets computers and related products and services. The firm manages its operations in a way that it ensures that the demand is met by the supply but at the same time it doesnt need to stock large quantities of products in warehouses (figure 2) i.e. Apple has a fast inventory turn over rate. (Gamet, 2009) Figure 2: Warehouse solution for a fast inventory turn over organization Operations Management encompasses a number of theoretical concepts, suitability and application of which varies within and across the organizations (Figure 3). Key factors include but are not limited to capacity planning, inventory management, supply chain design, performance measures and total quality management. In goods based organizations the concepts of inventory, supply chain, quality and capacity planning a re highly critical. Where as, in service based organizations factors relating to human resources, performance and quality management are given prime importance. (Bayraktar et al, 2007) Figure 3: Factors in Operations management The concept of operational strategies encompasses the plans for ordering raw material, converting them to finished product, storing and selling to the customer. Its implementation is often mismanaged in the fast changing environment in the highly globalized markets at present. The management problems in the area of operations management comprise of quantitative, social, technical issues and their complex mixtures (Liet al, 2000) Quantitative problems may include factors relating to planning, critical path analysis, supply chain management etc. Technical issues may consist of factors relating to automation, optimization, scheduling etc. Social factors may include human resource management, outsourcing etc. It is worth noting that these issues are not iso lated and independent of each other but they affect the effectiveness of the overall operations management in the business. Therefore it is essential to manage these problem areas to ensure that the overall operations management is not impacted adversely by these factors. To stay competitive a business needs to evolve so as to ensure that alternative course of actions can be adopted as per the available resources while effectively managing change (Volberda, 1999). The Human resources i.e. people in an organization are extremely important in operations, process and performance management process. The success of an organization is directly proportional to the success and satisfaction of its employees. Therefore from an operational point of view it is important for the business to employ and retain the right people for growth, profitability and sustainable business (Pfeffer, 1998). Analysis of operations process in different types of Organizations To understand how operations differ in different types of organization the case of an Aircraft manufacturer versus an airline operator is considered. The basis of this analysis is competitive priority and marketing strategy. The different types of operations process in these organizations will be identified and their adequacy to meet the customers needs assessed to understand the key factors of operations management. The very first and the most basic difference in the organizations chosen in this case study is that the aircraft manufacturer deals in the production of aircrafts and allied services for its customers while the airline operator deals solely in the provision of logistic services. For the purpose of simplicity and ease of understanding, the author has considered only the production of aircraft and provision of logistics to mark a clear distinction between goods based and services based organizations. To maintain competitive advantage both types of companies need to ensure that their operations are managed efficiently for keeping the costs under control and thereby offering the goods and services to their customers at competitive rate while ensuring maximum profitability (Frohlich et al, 2002). The aircraft manufacturer invests heavily in research and design as it needs to do it right the very first time. Due to the scale of operation, the various functions are distributed globally, thus efficient inventory, capacity and supply chain management are essential. Total quality management and performance are also needed to maintain the competitive and marketing advantage (Chow, 2002). The airline operator on the other hand relies on the aircraft supplied by the manufacturer to provide service to its customers. The operator doesnt need to maintain an inventory of planes but it has to ensure that it utilizes its capacity to maximum possible for providing competitive fares to its customers. The performance metrics for the airline are different as it has to ensure timely flight ope ration which again is essential from the marketing strategy point of view (Rae, 2001). The adequacy and suitability of the key theoretical principles and concepts in operations management are discussed in the next section of this case study. Evaluation of Operation Management concepts in different Organizations As discussed in the previous sections of this report, Operation Management is a key function in organizations whether they are product based or service based. In this section we look at the operations management practices in these industries. Product Based Industries We take a look at the operations management practices in a manufacturing company. These practices include utilization of techniques such as Kaizen, Just in Time, Kanban etc for managing operations. Inventory management and capacity planning are of prime importance to ensure that the raw materials and finished goods are maintained at optimum levels. Thus, various functions within the organization in teract with the Operation Management function (Slack et al, 2007). The engineering or technical function interacts in the space of understanding process needs and analyzing the new options available. The Product development function deals with understanding of capabilities and constraints as well as managing and introducing products. The marketing function deals with understanding of market requirements. The information technology function deals with provision of systems for design, planning, control and improvement. The Human resource function interacts in understanding the recruitment, development and training needs as well as employee welfare. The Accounting and finance division deals with cashflow and financial analysis of performance and decisions. Thus it can be noted that operations management sits in the centre of the various functions and thus is essential for the sustainability and growth of the organization (as shown in figure 4). Figure 4: Positioning of Operations Ma nagement in an organizations business functions. Service Based Industries Efficient Operations Management is equally important in service industry. As the inputs in service industry are intangible human resources and intellect the operations management challenges are different. Techniques such as Agile development, collaborative and distributed working are key factors in maintaining the competitive advantage and sustainability. (Johnston, 1999) Like manufacturing, various functions within the organization interact with the Operation Management function. The interactions and interfaces are similar but the relative functions vary due to the nature of industry. The technical function operates in the space of understanding process needs, maintaining intellectual property and analyzing the new options. The Service development function deals with understanding of human resources capabilities and constraints as well as managing and introducing products. The information technology fun ction is of great importance as it forms the backbone of the modern service industry. The relative roles of marketing, human resource and finance function remain the same. Integrated Products and Services This is a new and emerging industry segment, which has been pioneered by industry veterans like Rolls Royce. A fundamental shift is occurring at the firm which is moving away from selling products to the provision of services. Instead of selling engines and then providing maintenance contracts, the company is now offering power by the hour contracts. Under this new system, it leases engines to airlines while remaining responsible for their maintenance. In this sector, lower costs are achievable only by applying service experience of the existing products in the design of next generation of products. (Anon, cam.ac.uk, 2011) Impact on competitiveness, innovation and sustainability Effective operations management practises are vital for maintaining competitive advantage, i nnovating in the market and sustainability of the organization. History is filled with examples of firms that employed novel operations management practises and succeeded in creating a niche of their own in the market space. A prominent example is the Ford Assembly Line. The assembly line was not the brainchild of Henry Ford but he simply adopted and implemented it in a way that mass production of cars became possible. By implementing the Moving Assembly Line, Ford was able to bring production costs to an all time low and at the same time fuel the competition so much that many low volume competitors had to close shop (Womack et al, 1990). A more modern example is of Toyota which has revolutionized the manufacturing industry by pioneering and/or implementing systems like Lean, Six-Sigma, Kaizen, Just in Time to name a few. These systems were conceived primarily due to numerous constraints presented to Toyota in its home country, Japan, where land and resources were scarce and expe nsive (Smith, 2003). Employing these operations management practises has enabled Toyota to become the number one automobile manufacturer in the world, conquering Asian, African, European and American Markets alike. In the Services domain, operations management is playing an equally important role. Due to the differences in the basic nature of end product, the principles and their implementation differs in the domain of operations management. The input in service industry is intellect rather than raw materials. Therefore concepts like inventory management which is a key component in manufacturing operations management does not apply to services. Methodologies like agile development, distributed and collaborative working are of greater importance in service industry (Coram, 2005). International Business Machines (IBM), which is one the worlds oldest services based firms is a pioneer in employing market leading operations management practises in this industry. It makes uses of in novative tools to manage visibility, control and automation needed to deliver quality service, managing compliance and risk, and maximizing return on investments. It also provides software and implementation to firms operating in manufacturing as well as in services space (Johnston, 1999). Conclusion Operations Management is a key business process in any organization, whether it deals in products or in services. The principles or concepts of operations management and their implementation differ in these industries. Manufacturing industries rely on inventory management, capacity planning and production optimization techniques to innovate, maintain competitive advantage and safeguard sustainability. Service industry relies more on efficient utilization of its human resources and technology backbone for its operations management practices. In recent times it has been seen that a clear distinction between products and service industry is blurring and most businesses now offer a co mbination of products and services to their customers. This trend is even evident in more traditional manufacturing industries such as Rolls Royce which is moving away from selling products to offering power by hour contracts in the form of leases. Thus integrated products and services is clearly emerging as a unified entity. Operations management will prove to be an integral business process and a key differentiator between leaders and followers in these changing times. References Slack et al (1995) Operations Management, Pitman Publishing: London. Voss, C.A. (1995) Operations management from Taylor to Toyota and Beyond?, British Journal of Management, Vol.6, Special Issue, S17-S29, December. Schmenner, R.W. and Swink, M.L., On theory in operations management, Journal of Operations Management, Volume 17, Issue 1, December 1998, Pages 97-113, ISSN 0272-6963 Gamet, J., Apple Beats Competitors at Inventory Turn Over, macobserver.com, Mar 2009 Available from: htt ps://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/apple_beats_competitors_at_inventory_turn_over/ Accessed: 21st February, 2011 Bayraktar, E., Jothishankar, M.C., Tatoglu,E. Wu, T., Evolution of operations management: past, present and future, Management Research News, Vol. 30 Iss: 11, pp.843 871, 2007 Li, H. and Li, L. X. (2000), Integrating systems concepts into manufacturing information systems, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Volume 17, Issue 2, pages 135-147, 2000 Volberda, H. W., Building the flexible firm: how to remain competitive, Oxford University Press, 1999 Pfeffer, J., The human equation: Building profits by putting people first, Harvard Business Press. 1998 Frohlich, M. T. and Westbrook,R., Demand chain management in manufacturing and services: web-based integration, drivers and performance, Journal of Operations Management, Volume 20, Issue 6, November 2002, Pages 729-745, ISSN 0272-6963, Chow, C. and Shields, M. The importance of national culture in the design of and preference for management controls for multi-national operations, mit.dspace.org, 2002 Rae, D. EasyJet: a case of entrepreneurial management?, Strategic Change, Volume 10, Issue 6, pages 325-336, September/October 2001 Slack, N., Chambers, S. and Johnson, R., Stratgeic Operations Management, 5th Edition: Harlow: FT, Prentice Hall, 2007 Johnston, R., Service operations management: return to roots, International Journal of Operations Production Management, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 104-124, 1999 Anon, Integrated Products and Services IPAS, University of Cambridge Available from: https://www-edc.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/knowledgemanagement/km1/ipas/ Accessed: 23rd February, 2011 Womack, J., Jones, D., Roos, D., The Machine That Changed The World, New York : Rawson Associates : Oxford : Maxwell Macmillan International, 1990. Smith, B., Lean and Six SigmaA One-Two Punch, American Society for Quality, 2003. Coram, M.; Bohner, S.; The impact of agile methods on software project management, 12th IEEE International Conference and Workshops on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems, 2005. 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